By Josh Mayfield
Brazil
Recent developments for Brazil’s National Fertilizer Plan were announced at the 12th Brazilian Fertilizer Congress held in Sao Paulo. Brazil intends to expand its national fertilizer strategy by boosting domestic production capacity to 73 million tons by 2036. At present, Brazil’s domestic fertilizer production is below 50 million tons per year. The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA) and delegates of the Brazilian Association for Fertilizer Diffusion (ANDA) were keen on providing support to the new goals for Brazil’s domestic fertilizer production.
Brazil’s fertilizer import dilemma is a classic example of how potash resources fit into the geopolitical risk for a country’s domestic agriculture production and national food security, especially one which has a GDP-driven agriculture export economy like Brazil. There were other issues addressed at the Sao Paulo event, such as the Bioinputs Law and credit issues for Brazilian farmers. There were also discussions about Brazil’s biofuels production, which will further increase the need for fertilizers from foreign import sources in the near term. Corn production hasn’t generally been carried out for biofuels in the Brazil market, so this is a growth market scenario for potash producers to compete in this dynamic market.
Russia
At the BRICS Business Forum in Brazil, the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers (RAFP) claimed that Russia produced over 63 million tonnes of mineral fertilizers in 2024, of which over 50 per cent went to BRICS countries. One of the reasons Russia’s fertilizer exports are booming is because Brazil fertilizer demand grew at a rapid pace in 2024 to 2025. Brazil has already increased fertilizer imports from 10.18 million mt in the first half of 2024 to 11.54 million mt in the first half of 2025.
Other major fertilizer producers are taking note of Brazil’s fertilizer demand. Both Russia’s Eurochem and U.S.-based Mosaic Company have announced new investments into fertilizer production capacity in Brazil. Eurochem invested over USD $1 billion in a new phosphate fertilizer plant. It will produce over one million tonnes of phosphate fertilizer at the Serra do Salitre phosphate facility. The Mosaic Company will begin operations at a blending, storage, and distribution plant in Palmeirante, Tocantins, Brazil. The processing plant has a capacity of one million tonnes per annum, including warehouse capacity, automated blending, and bagging systems that are connected to a rail system linking ports in Northern Brazil.
India and China
The PRC’s foreign minister Wang Yi met his counterparts in New Delhi on August 19, 2025 to ensure that fertilizers from China would be resumed after nearly one year of export restrictions to India. India has tried to turn this into a political issue between the two countries, but China has in fact restricted fertilizer exports to the global markets since the global COVID-19 pandemic to ensure its own domestic agriculture needs.
China’s fertilizer exports have risen significantly since July 2024, mainly because of ammonium sulfate exports. From January to July 2025, China’s fertilizer imports were down from a year ago, but the import value of USD $2.4 billion is still a large market for fertilizer producers. Potash producers have a keen eye on China’s potash demand. Laos potash mining is uncertain, at best, and Thailand’s potash projects are still years away from production. There aren’t any other viable potash developers in the Asia-Pacific region at present. India is also a key buyer of potash fertilizers, so any upcoming potash tenders for India will also be insightful for deals with other countries in the global potash market going into the 2025-2026 calendar year.
So, what does this mean for potash producers?
The Russia-Ukraine war has had a detrimental effect on food and fertilizer imports in Sub-Saharan Africa. Three countries to watch for fertilizer development projects are Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya. In a global trading arena where U.S. tariffs rule the roost, agricultural producers are going to rethink fertilizer supplies in the medium- to long-term, which includes all three of the macronutrients— nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. Potash remains to be one of the more reliable sources, as China is not a key supplier, nor have the Middle East tensions caused any potash supply disruptions from Israel or Jordan.
All hands on deck for BRICS!
Joshua Mayfield is a growth minerals and sector analyst with Hallgarten + Company Ltd., specializing in fertilizers, mining projects, and emerging market trends in the resource sector.
