We are all concerned about the disruptive events in the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran overshadowed what could have been a very positive string of events for potash as a critical
mineral, specifically.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney met with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on March 2, 2026 to discuss bilateral ties. The company’s trade relationship was high on the agenda. The two leaders set a goal for USD $70 billion in annual trade by 2030. Although the uranium deal between the two governments took the spotlight of this meeting, Saskatchewan is also the world’s largest potash basin. This was emphasized during a meeting between Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Tim Hodgson, and India’s Minister of Chemicals and Fertilizers, Jagat Prakash Nadda. India’s Minister Nadda pointed out that that nearly 25% of India’s muriate of potash (MOP) is sourced from potash producers in the Saskatchewan basin.
The meeting of world leaders took place before Canada announced its $3.6 billion in critical minerals funding at PDAC 2026 in Toronto. At PDAC 2026, potash got the credit it deserves for being a “civilizational mineral”. It’s conceivable that PDAC organizers had no intention of making a link to what eventually became an all-out war between two civilizations in the Middle East, but, nevertheless, potash
demand is growing and it is our growth mineral for both now and in the future. Potash demand hasn’t necessarily been affected by the Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions, and it is not likely to be a significant price mover in the near term. Given that both Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s largest agriculture producers, particularly in grains and oilseeds, the potash prices had skyrocketed to above US$1,000/mt when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. On the back of other events, such as U.S. and E.U. sanctions on Belarus in 2021.
We were also delighted to see Karnalyte Resources (TSX-V: KRN) on the Saskatchewan Day Agenda at PDAC 2026. Karnalyte stands to benefit the most from this renewed trade relationship between India and Canada. CEO Danielle Favreau stated that a renewed focus on cooperation in potash mining, exploration and supply chains would be a boon for food security in India. The company recently filed an updated feasibility study for its flagship Wynyard potash project in Saskatchewan. The study confirmed a life of mine (LOM) of 70 years. We have previously covered Karnalyte in our previous editions of the Growth Minerals Review. The company already has an offtake agreement with one of India’s prominent fertilizer importers—Gujarat State Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited.
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