By Joshua Mayfield, Growth Minerals Analyst for Hallgarten+Co
One rationale for new fertilizer investments revolves around the U.S. potash market dilemma. This is happening in a current market where all the data and analytics firms are downplaying potash prices for “softening”.
Their conclusions about prices are based on two reasons: Brazil isn’t buying potash and China has already locked in the MOP contract price at approximately USD $355 per ton. The latter problem doesn’t consider that China has surpassed historical buying trends of MOP in 2026. All the potash supplies that went to China will influence global inventories and production strategies for potash mining. With a current global market average of around USD $385 per ton of MOP, according to the data and analytics firms, the potash market is being labeled as a “softening” trend.
In October, MOP fertilizer prices passed the USD $500 per ton threshold in U.S. retail markets for the second time this year. This is occurring while the rest of the global market contemplates what to do about potash in connection with higher nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer prices going into the 2026/2027 crop season. Global potash prices are softening, that’s what the fertilizer community wants to believe, but clearly potash fertilizer prices are hardening in the U.S. market. The price chart below shows that the average retail price for U.S. MOP hit a new 3-month high.
That’s why we believe this is the right time to be a junior potash company in the U.S. market.
Sage Potash (TSX-V: SAGE) reported an updated MRE based on new and expanded drilling results at the U.S.-based Sage Plain Potash Project in the Paradox Basin of Utah. Sage Potash has more than doubled the potash resource at the potash project, boosting the M&I potash resources to a total of 226.1 million metric tons, at much higher grades than previously reported from the company’s estimates.
The updated MRE for the Sage Plain project put total potash resources at about 771.5 million metric tons, up from 298.1 million metric tons from the previous estimate. Measured and indicated resources account for 226.1 million metric tons, grading at an average of 41.36 % potassium chloride (KCl). The remaining 545.4 million metric tons are in the inferred resources category. Sage Potash has declared that it is targeting an initial production of 150,000-300,000 metric tons in the first phase of Sage Plain Potash Project in the Paradox Basin.
The company still needs to do permitting work on environmental studies as well as engineering studies for an expanded throughput design that requires a large mine operation (LMO) permit. The latter regulatory outcomes will be the next key steps for the company to attract more investors in the future, since the LMO permit would allow the company to expand on the mineral resources and production timeline.
Read more about the global potash market in the November edition of the Growth Minerals Review by Hallgarten+Co
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