BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook in 2026 released with the latest earnings results should suffice for the rest of this year. The narrative around “future-facing commodities” is still present in the latest BHP outlook for the potash market:
– “Population growth, urbanisation and rising living standards remain central to our commodity demand forecasts. China remains at the core of the growth outlook, while demand is increasing from India and other emerging economies as they build out their industrial capacity.”
– “India’s commodity demand has plenty of room to grow as it expands its infrastructure and capital stock from a low base.”
– “Potash prices also recovered on Chinese restocking, firm global consumption and annual contract resettlements in China and India.”
In our comments to The Globe & Mail back in April, we noted that BHP’s future-facing commodities strategy is all about serving the market for megatrends, because feeding the world is a megatrend. Potash fits in with any modernization drive to secure key mineral commodities in the future, and not only due to potash’s significant as an essential crop nutrient to grow food, but also because of the elevated geopolitical risk profile that comes with potash production, supply networks and demand hubs.
In 2021, BHP forecast that the first stage of the Jansen Potash Project would cost US$7.5bn. The price tag has since climbed to US$11.7bn. Although the first production is still on schedule for mid-2027, the previous CEO Mike Henry has stepped down in place of new CEO Brandon Craig as of July 2026. Craig is the fifth leader to oversee BHP’s Jansen Potash Project.
The execution risk is even greater for the new CEO, Brandon Craig, because the capex keeps ballooning into multi-billions of dollars, while the timeline for first production at Stage 1 is less than one year from now. Will the market see first Jansen potash production in mid-2027? This is still the overarching question for the global potash market.
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