Posted by: Joshua Mayfield, Growth Minerals Analyst for Hallgarten+Co
The agricultural trade between Brazil and China is called one of the world’s most critical agricultural trade corridors. The Brazil-China agriculture trade has seen an enormous shift in China’s soybean imports.
Although there have been some issues with Brazilian soybean inspections, the two countries have reached a new agreement to ease concerns over the booming soybean trade. In the new agreement, Brazilian soybeans shipments will not have to face a zero-tolerance requirement for weed control in pre-plantings. The lifting of this previous requirement expedites the increase of Brazilian soybean exports to China, as the world’s largest market for soybeans has successfully diversified its agricultural supply away from the U.S.
ING Bank figures underscore this fact:
– China corn imports increased by 121.4% YoY to 170k tonnes in February 2026
– China corn cumulative imports rose 207.9% YTD to 550k tonnes
– China wheat imports surged 344% YoY to 320k tonnes in February 2026
– China wheat cumulative imports are 1.3mn tonnes, up 1,068.7% YTD
The significant rise in imports was largely driven by China’s strategy to diversify its supply chain and increase agricultural commodities trading with new suppliers from Argentina and Brazil. Meanwhile, U.S.-China agricultural trade has plummeted to the displeasure of all U.S. farming communities. Recent figures from U.S. farming organizations reveal this fact:
– The American Soybean Association demands more U.S. soybeans to China and the removal of the remaining 10% tariff placed on American imports.
– In the 2024–2025 marketing year, the United States exported about 22.6 million metric tons of soybeans to China. On average, China imports between 25 and 30 million metric tons each year.
– Top 13 California agricultural commodities exported to China fell from an average total of $1.55 billion in 2024 to $554 million in 2025, a 64% decline.
– The value of annual pistachio exports to China declined by about $478 million, while almond exports fell by roughly $228 million.
– Almond shipments to China fell about 77%, while pistachio shipments declined roughly 84%.
The U.S.-China agricultural trade has taken one of the biggest blows from the tariffs, amid the ongoing US-China trade war since 2018. This shift in the world’s largest demand for agricultural commodities, China, has a new center for global supply in Latin America, which is being called “trade diversion” tactics by U.S. farming groups.
All of these shifts are just in time for Hallgarten+Co’s initiation of coverage on Brazil Potash (NYSE: GRO). Potash was designated a critical mineral in both the U.S. and Canada. Potash is also critical to Brazil’s economy, due to the country’s reliance on imports of Muriate of Potash (MOP). New potash projects like the Autazes Potash Project, with a planned capacity of 2.4 million tons of MOP production are pivotal to Brazil’s National Fertilizer Plan.
Furthermore, significant potash demand comes from sugarcane, covering some eight million hectares, and the second-crop corn area, spanning 17 million hectares, underscoring Brazil’s foundational importance to the market. Brazil is also the world’s second-largest consumer of potash fertilizers, with imports meeting over 95% of the Brazilian demand. Fertilizer application is rapidly growing to meet the demands for food production in the Asia-Pacific region for domestic staple crops like maize, cereals, and rice.
It goes without saying that the majority of potassium chloride (KCI) extraction from potash mineralization is processed for potash fertilizers. It is estimated that between 90% and 95% of potash is used for agricultural fertilizers. Thus, the essential USP of Brazil Potash Corp is the “name on its box”. It is potash for Brazil, the world’s hungriest market for fertilizers.
Find the full Brazil Potash initiation report in the PDF file: https://hallgartenco.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/GRO_Initiation_March2026.pdf
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