By Joshua Mayfield
In Q3 2025, Russia’s Uralkali announced intentions to increase potash supplies to producers of compound and complex fertilizers by 400,000 tonnes. The company had performed a series of potash facility maintenances at key production sites in Russia since Q2 2025. This means that Russian potash exports could be boosted to global markets to meet demand.
Time is of the essence for Urakali since the Russian Federation has already announced fertilizer export quotas that will kick in from December 31, 2025 to May 31, 2026. The total amount for mineral fertilizer exports set by the Russian government is 18.7 million tonnes for the six-month period. We should be mindful that China has fertilizer export restrictions in place, so Uralkali will probably export more of its fertilizers to China and India depending on the demand for MOP.
MOP has been one of the main targets of the export quota system, due to Russia’s significant global market share, which is also a concern for Russia’s domestic fertilizer procurement for potash. At the beginning of 2025, data released from the Russian Federation stated that potash production levels would reach 16.9 million tonnes for the entire year. Market analysts also speculated that the export quotas would cause a rise in global potash prices. It’s not entirely clear if Russia’s domestic potash production has been affected by the fertilizer export quotas, but the outcome was clearly a steady rise in potash prices on the global market due to fears over tighter global supplies.
Belaruskali is faced with an entirely different problem. The Belarusian government is patiently watching the steady rise in global potash market prices, since running up revenues from potash exports is more important to the state-owned potash producer at this time. Potash exports have been hit with sanctions from both the U.S. and the E.U. over the last five years. Higher potash prices could’ve been a positive sign for Belaruskali, until another flare up happened on the borders of Poland and Lithuania.
The government in Minsk has been criticized by the E.U. for a “targeted hybrid campaign” against Lithuania. The campaign came with a barrage of so-called smuggling balloons that had reportedly been used to smuggle cigarettes from Belarus into the E.U. The Lithuanian government then announced that it would close its entire border with Belarus until November 30 due to the security risks posed onto Lithuania’s airspace. Then, the Polish government also announced that it would delay the re-opening of its border with Belarus, probably due to the Lithuanian government’s decision. The border between Poland and Belarus was initially closed on September 12, 2025 in response to the joint military exercises held by Russia and Belarus, known as Zapad 2025. Poland has also accused Belarus of engaging in a hybrid war.
The geopolitical issues will not bode well for Belaruskali or marketing arm Belarusian Potash Corporation (BPC). BPC got hit with E.U. sanctions the hardest, while both the U.S. and E.U. have sanctioned Belaruskali. If Belaruskali wants to get the E.U. potash market back into its portfolio, then it will have to negotiate with the E.U. to have sanctions on BPC lifted. Maybe there could be a compromise between Belarus and the E.U. over sanctions, but it will not matter at all if the current sanctions on BPC hold for the long term.
The other problem for Belaruskali is again related to the Lithuania-Belarus border. Another entity involved in the E.U. sanctions on BPC is Lithuanian Railways. There have been reports in the media suggesting that a new agreement between Lithuanian Railways and Belarusian Railways could be imminent. Other goods have already been transported via the Belarusian railway connections into Lithuania that were destined for the Baltic sea port at Klaipėda. Thus, all it will take is for the E.U. to make a deal for allowing Belarusian potash exports to resume through Lithuania, at which time one of the world’s largest potash suppliers would be back in the seaborne potash market.
With potash demand on the rise globally, junior potash explorers and developers want a seat at the table. For Belaruskali, it’s about getting back in the saddle.
Joshua Mayfield is a growth minerals and sector analyst with Hallgarten + Company Ltd., specializing in fertilizers, mining projects, and emerging market trends in the resource sector.
