Patterns of international trade are changing rapidly. We are moving from an era of relatively unimpeded free trade to one where powerful nations increasingly use control over resources, technologies, and market access as levers to achieve political, economic, and security objectives.
For middle powers, such as Canada, resource development becomes both a matter of economic importance and part of protecting our sovereignty. When other countries depend on us for crucial inputs and products, they are incentivised to maintain positive relationships with us.
As the leading global potash producer, Canada opens itself to strategic opportunities in a world where food security is an ever-evolving concern. This sits at the core of what companies like Mosaic do: helping the world grow the food it needs. Every potash shipment connects Canadian resources to farmers around the world who depend on reliable fertilizer to sustain crop yields. Without potash, global agricultural productivity would decline significantly, reducing the world’s ability to feed a growing population.
Canada is a potash superpower, with one-third of the world’s production coming from Saskatchewan, supplying more than 40 countries. Mosaic alone operates some of the world’s largest potash mines in Saskatchewan, making the province a cornerstone of the global fertilizer system. Canada’s primary competitors in this space include Russia (19 per cent), Belarus (15 per cent), and China (13 per cent). Without Canada, autocratic states would dominate the potash industry. Canada’s role extends beyond supply. We provide a stable, rules-based alternative in a market where reliability is increasingly tied to geopolitics. As demand for food continues to increase, reliable potash producers, such as Canada, are essential for global food security.
Canada’s potash industry is growing, but like many other Canadian industries, it faces significant hurdles. For exporters, reputation is everything. If a supplier cannot deliver goods quickly and reliably, the market will turn to other sources. When Canadians order products online, we expect timely delivery on our doorstep. Without this convenience, companies such as Amazon and others would struggle to remain in business. This is also the case for delivering potash. However, the systems meant to enable the trade and movement of natural resources stymie that reality in Canada.
Canada is facing a trade infrastructure deficit estimated between $110 and $270 billion, which impacts the network of roads, railways, and ports that enable Canadian producers to ship goods to buyers. One example is the Second Narrows Rail Bridge in Vancouver. Built in the 1960s, the single-track bridge provides the only rail access to North Shore terminals and remains a critical link in Canada’s export supply chain. As trade volumes continue to grow, infrastructure throughout the corridor must keep pace. Additional staging capacity, longer rail sidings and targeted investments in key bottlenecks such as Second Narrows would help improve overall system fluidity and support the efficient movement of Canadian exports.
Between 2022 and 2024 alone, six major labour disruptions impacted approximately two-million tonnes of potash exports valued at roughly $1 billion. Canada’s infrastructure deficit compounds the impact of these disruptions. When so much trade moves through a limited number of critical rail and port corridors, labour-related interruptions can quickly ripple throughout the supply chain, affecting exporters, customers, and Canada’s reputation as a reliable trading partner.
Maintaining Canada’s reputation requires a supply chain that reliably connects mines to ports and performs consistently across rail networks, ports, and supporting infrastructure. As a solution, Mosaic has asked the federal government to include potash under existing Canada Labour Code rules that ensure shipments, such as grain, keep moving during labour disruptions. In the longer term, however, Canada needs to develop new and better policy instruments to facilitate labour negotiations that minimize disruptions to Canadian supply chains.
Some changes that were consulted on by the Government of Canada show promise, such as revising cooling off, conciliation and bargaining timelines, and creating a special mediator role to mitigate or avoid labour disruptions. Bold action is needed to prevent frequent work stoppages that paralyze customers’ ability to ship products.
Fertilizer supply is highly time sensitive, making infrastructure and labour disruptions a particularly acute issue. Farmers have as few as 10 to12 days to apply fertilizer, and missed shipments cannot be recovered within the same growing season. Supply interruptions in key markets, such as Southeast Asia, have led to lost market share for Canadian producers, opening opportunities for competitors to capture demand. Lost contracts can take years or decades to rebuild, weakening Canada’s position in global markets and long-term trade relationships.
Canada needs to think strategically about its role as a reliable producer and provider of potash and other commodities. This is important both economically and as a crucial strategic move to help secure our sovereignty in a world increasingly defined by leverage rather than alliances. To do this, Canada needs to recognize potash as a strategic commodity that enables our nation to be an exporting powerhouse. This requires meaningful action to build the needed infrastructure and materially fix the labour issues that too often paralyze industries reliant on rail and port networks.
It’s unlikely most Canadians think about how families in Southeast Asia rely on Canada’s rail network and a mine in Esterhazy, Sask., for their daily meals. But that’s the reality of the potash supply chain and a tangible representation of its global importance.
Canadian potash delivers value throughout its supply chain: from local jobs and economic opportunities at home to food security worldwide. It’s time for the country to get behind this asset, safeguard its potential, and build Canadian potash strong for the next generation.
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