Getting the most out of mechanical assets
Peak potash prices have plateaued…
After a period of high prices through 2022 and 2023, potash prices have fallen and are expected to plateau through 2024 and 2025. Though prices are not expected to reach pre-2022 levels, the drop from the heights of 2022 has already had an impact on Canadian production with major producers slowing their expansion plans.
… but volatility still exists making future prices uncertain
However, even though prices may be lower after the record high prices of 2022, the global uncertainty that, in part, drove high prices remains. Canadian producers are positioned to take advantage of any favourable price uncertainty as some of the next largest producers are subject to export sanctions (Russia, Belarus) or are large potash importers themselves (China).
Preparing (assets) for uncertainty
With producers reticent to commit to large capital expenditures or slowing expansion to preserve cashflow, there is an opportunity to refocus on existing assets and operations and ensure that they are prepared for a future with increased demand. Investing in asset integrity strategies, processes, and technologies can ensure the reliability and performance of critical assets needed to meet production targets and minimize risks.
Bins are ubiquitous in potash operations and are critical in the handling and storage of potash. Bins and boxes fill multiple roles, from adding surge capacity and storage to mixing where high material flowrates can result in significant wear. Additionally, bins also represent a unique risk as anything more than a minor failure can result in serious injuries to personnel, long production downtime, and a significant clean-up job. The highly corrosive environment presented by potash, coupled with temperature and humidity fluctuations common in Saskatchewan, means that bins are constantly at risk of wear, corrosion, and degradation.
An assessment of existing bins on site is often the first step in deciding the best approach to maintaining the equipment and ensuring continued operation. March Consulting Associates’ (March) approach has been to conduct an inspection of bins and assess the current state of the bin. Potential threats such as corrosion, likely areas of mechanical failure, environmental factors, and regulatory compliance are considered. The result of an assessment is a prioritized list of recommended actions, such as changes to maintenance techniques, adjustment of operating conditions, repair and reinforcement, or replacement.
Discrete element modeling
Unless mechanical failure is imminent and reinforcement options limited, replacement is rarely the most attractive option. March looks to leverage expertise and technology to find more attractive options for operators. Using Discrete Element Modeling (DEM) to analyze the state of existing equipment, as well as exploring potential operational changes, can minimize future degradation. Two examples are outlined below:
Mechanical failure analysis
Both failure and premature replacement of bins can be very costly. Not only are the bins themselves expensive, but their size also often requires a shutdown with extensive planning and modification to the structure they are housed in. Therefore, determining the remaining life of assets, such as bins, is valuable in creating maintenance and replacement plans.
March can employ DEM to identify the locations of the greatest wear on a bin and, given its current state, calculate the remaining lifecycle of the equipment. Understanding wear characteristics on a bin can influence repair/replacement decisions and can also feed into targeted maintenance monitoring plans. Though the example above shows the influence of wear on the interior of the bin, DEM can also be used to show wear on the structural components supporting the bin or to model the forces on the structural members themselves.
Flow optimization to improve performance and reduce wear
Another use for DEM is as an exploratory tool for equipment optimization. In addition to corrosion and wear, potash can clump together causing adverse effects to flow, reduced throughput, and increased wear.
March performed iterative design improvements on a feed hopper to improve throughput. This type of analysis has also been used to improve potash load-out facilities that were having issues evenly loading rail cars with finished product.
As local potash producers adapt to the change in pricing and debate delaying large expansions, it will become important to get the most out of existing assets. Inspecting and prioritizing repairs to existing assets can help ensure that should price volatility turn favourable and that there are no unexpected roadblocks preventing full production. Adding Discrete Element Modeling to this analysis can not only identify at-risk assets, it also offers the potential to locate and fix production bottlenecks.
With 25 years of continuous of experience helping the potash industry in Canada, March has expertise in finding cost-effective maintenance strategies and process improvements that help assets function in the challenging potash environment.
