The market is very concerned about the performance of both Nutrien Ltd and The Mosaic Company after 2Q26 earnings results. In Mosaic’s case, the company has already shut down most of the Brazil phosphate operations, so the market should’ve expected those losses in the Latin American market. The undervalued point appears to be Mosaic’s loss from Maaden’s phosphate plants in Saudi Arabia. Maaden reported a 49% drop in earnings from the company’s phosphate operations and fully withdrew the company’s ammonia output guidance for 2026. Mosaic specifically mentioned the pre-tax notable item of its Maaden shares as a key factor: a loss of US$162 million.
In total, Mosaic reported a net loss of US$273 million during 2Q26. The operating losses in Mosaic’s phosphate segment have consistently performed negatively— from a loss of US$48 million in Q1 to a loss of US$104 million in 2Q26. This is being explained by the company as “an increase in raw material costs and lower fixed-cost absorption from lower volumes.” For example, raw material costs were reported at US$522 per long ton for sulphur and US$621 per tonne for ammonia. The company settled the price of US$705 per long ton sulphur in the next quarter, with average phosphate fertilizer prices at $820-$840 per tonne on an FOB basis.
As for Nutrien, the world’s largest potash producer by volume, most of the headlines emphasize the lower sales and profit estimates. Both potash and nitrogen segments missed sales and profit forecasts for 2Q26. Nutrien has tried to make up for the nitrogen deficit by increasing potash sales volumes from 14.1 million tons to 14.2 million tons for the total year. That puts the company’s current potash sales guidance for 2026 at 14.2-14.8 million tons.
Nevertheless, total nitrogen fertilizer sales declined quarter-over-quarter by 3%. The company’s ammonia and urea production have both witnessed steep declines compared with the previous year, particularly due to the issues at the company’s former Trinidad & Tobago nitrogen production facilities, regardless of rising selling prices on the global market. The key insights for both Nutrien and Mosaic are in the global potash market.
Lower potash production costs and higher net selling prices will drive both companies’ profits and sales going into the next quarter and the rest of 2026. Potash demand appears to be high on the global market, and so Canpotex is in a great position to negotiate new and ongoing deals with Brazil, China, India and the rest of the world. Emerging and new markets for Canpotex are also popping up, notably in the European Union, as sanctions on Belarus and Russia take their toll in the long term.
Here’s our take. As long as Mosaic and Nutrien prioritize potash production and sales, there shouldn’t be any real need to be concerned about the 2Q26 earnings results at this time. Canpotex will ensure market access for the potash during higher prices in the second half of this year. This is also a great opportunity for Canpotex to establish a growing and dominant presence in the European Union and Southeast Asian potash markets.
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