By Josh mayfield
One of the biggest headlines from the potash sector in 2025 was Nutrien Ltd.’s decision to forego an opportunity to build a potash export terminal in Canada, while going ahead with the decision to invest in a new potash terminal in Longview, Washington, USA.
The decision was very controversial in Canada. In an op-ed by Lorne Gunter in the Edmonton Journal, the decision to build a new potash terminal in the U.S. was analyzed under the backdrop of PM Carney’s MPO and other Canadian domestic politics. Lorne Gunter posed a critical question to readers about the decision: “So when Nutrien, the world’s largest potash mining company, based in Saskatoon, says it’s looking to build a new billion-dollar export terminal, don’t you think that Prime Minister Mark Carney and his vaunted Major Projects Office (MPO) would jump at the chance to help the company find a Canadian site and remove any roadblocks to the terminal’s construction?”
There are various opinions about why Nutrien has decided to abandon plans for Vancouver or Prince Rupert. One is logistical. Infrastructure investments would be needed to upgrade railroads from the potash mines in Saskatchewan to the ports on Canadian coasts. Another argument is about domestic politics in Canada. Under the “nation-building” platform, Prime Minister Carney’s government has prioritized projects that will have quick turnarounds from construction to production.
While I will not speculate on the politics around this decision, I do believe it is timely to mention that a Saskatchewan-based junior potash company, Karnalyte Resources (TSX:KRN), has emerged from the shadows of potash mining and exploration in Canada. The company has a solution mining facility near Wynyard, Saskatchewan, where it intends to develop a carnallite-sylvite mineral deposit that will produce 350,000 tons per year in a first phase, with another 600,000 tons of potash per year in the second phase, while increasing to over 1 million tons per year through advancements in the development project.
In late April 2015, the company had made a unanimous decision to write down the Wynyard Project to its salvage value, a decision which was strongly supported by Karnalyte’s independent auditors. The board also unanimously determined that it would not be possible to finance and profitably construct and operate a production facility at the Wynyard Project due to the price environment for potash and magnesium in 2015.
On 13 August 2025, ten years later, the company released a statement about the strategic review, expanding into magnesium chloride production at the Wynyard Project by developing magnesium resources alongside the potash resource. The new strategy is to produce two resources—potash and magnesium—of which are both relevant to global fertilizer market trends. For example, magnesium is also a critical mineral in Canada.
In this context, Karnalyte emerged with its ambitions to carry out a new strategy for the Wynyard Project in Saskatchewan, including recent results from a NI 43-101 Technical Report, which confirmed the company’s plans to produce a total amount of potash at 142.2-million tons, or 2.175-million tons per year, in addition to 7 million tons of hydromagnesite.
One of the most important aspects of the Wynyard Project is that it already has an influential offtake agreement from India’s Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals (GSFC). Moreover, both fertilizer resources have the attention of the U.S. market, particularly magnesium sulfate (SOPM), also known as langbeinite. Karnalyte is one of the few companies that has an advantage in producing SOPM from the resource base in Saskatchewan. SOPM will be an important part of the company’s strategy to sell fertilizer to U.S. farmers in the Corn Belt.
Canpotex CEO Gordon McKenzie recently wrote about potash supply chains in The Hill Times. Under the backdrop of U.S. tariffs, McKenzie pointed out that Canada’s potash supply chain vulnerabilities are an internal problem for exporters. This is why Karnalyte’s dual-market strategy, targeting both U.S. and India for its potash and magnesium fertilizers, will complement the diversification strategy for potash exports from Canada. The supply and demand of potash reveals that food security comes at a price, so Canadian potash producers should look for growth markets where long term value supersedes uncertainty.
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