Posted by Joshua Mayfield with Hallgarten + Co
Growth Minerals Sector Review – Fertilizers in a Time of War:
The Israel-Iran war escalation did more than just put global fertilizer supplies into focus. It turned the attention over to the East of Suez markets. With Asia-Pacific’s growing demand for food, potash and urea fertilizer supplies have seen a significant shift to the East of Suez since last year. Canpotex has even had a hard time competing with Russia and Belarus in the key markets there. The reasons are clear. The governments in Indonesia and Malaysia have a high preference for Belarusian potash supplies, while Russian fertilizer producers make deals in tandem with the Kremlin’s strategic objectives that suits national strategies for food security.
In the East of Suez markets, fertilizer supplies are indeed high politics and thus price movements and trade deals should be analyzed from this vantage point. Although no one was paying attention, Russia held the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 18. Food and fertilizer supplies were on the agenda. Russia’s fertilizer producer Phosagro stole the show after selling 4.3 million tonnes of fertilizers in January-May 2025. The CEO of Phosagro, Mikhail Rybnikov, even showed off how the company is going to capitalize on the EU’s fertilizer tariffs by sending more fertilizer supplies in the upcoming quarters.
This year’s SPIEF was important geopolitically as well. Russian President Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko held a joint meeting about the state of the world from their perspectives. It didn’t sound like Lukashenko had much to say about it at all, though. The US and EU sanctions on Belarus’s potash fertilizer exports have been a devastation to the country’s economy. Moreover, Belarus is even more dependent on Russia for transportation and shipping of its fertilizer supplies since the shipping routes were cut off from the Baltic Sea in 2021.
In closing, have a look at the attendees during this joint meeting: Azerbaijan, UK, Vietnam, Germany, Indonesia, Spain, Kazakhstan, China, USA, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and France. These are all the countries we have covered in the Growth Minerals Sector Review this year. The results of a press conference between heads of state from Russia and Belarus might not be important at the G7 Summit, but any strategic planning being made between them is critical to the global potash markets. Greenfield potash production capacity will not be able take market share away from Canpotex, Russia or Belarus in the future.
Read the entire July Growth Minerals Sector Review for more information on potash mining companies and global fertilizer markets.
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