China continues to source extraordinary soybean volumes from Brazil. For the first four
months of 2026, Brazilian soybean exports have accounted for 45 million metric tons of
the 61.7 million metric tons exported globally so far—that’s approximately 73% of the
world total. Soybean exports are already up by an additional 6 million metric tons (a
55.6 million ) compared to the same months during 2025.
The global soybean trade is all about Brazilian production and China demand. The trade
figures from January-April 2026 reveal that U.S. soybean exports to China are falling
even faster than the previous two years, from 10.7 million metric tons in 2024 to 7.8
million metric tons during the first four months. Argentina’s soybean exports slightly rose
to make up for this lack of U.S. import demand. Argentina has recorded nearly two
million metric tons of soybean exports to China from January-April 2026. We addressed
this agriculture trade shift in a recent interview on the Mining Network. During global
fertilizer trade disruptions, the most disadvantaged party of all is Brazil.
Brazil imports 95% of its potash needs. The country is desperately scrambling at the
moment to ensure some better guarantee in the future that its massive soybean crops
are fertilized. Brazil has long been dependent on potash sources from Russia and
Belarus. Brazil is trying to kickstart a domestic potash industry to reduce imports. The
crop yields for Brazil would just plunge without potash. The knock-on effects to corn and
soybeans are like dominoes.
The reciprocal tariffs by China on U.S. agricultural goods were lowered to 13% in
November 2025, and yet, China still gives Brazil a significant advantage vis-à-vis U.S.
with a tariff of only 3%. It is increasingly clear that U.S.-China trade tensions will prevent
large purchases of U.S. soybeans. The discussion once revolved around an additional
12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans being sold to China by the end of 2025—that’s a
foregone conclusion! Then, there was the idea that China would be willing to buy U.S.
agricultural commodities at a premium as a favor to Trump’s new trade deal. Yet, no
favors were given after the Xi-Trump meeting on the agriculture trade front. All the
favors went to Argentina and Brazil.
That’s why our investment thesis for Brazil Potash remains focused on the critical nexus
of geopolitical risk and Brazilian fertilizer independence. The company is not
exaggerating when it refers to the Autazes project as one of the world’s largest
undeveloped potash basins in Brazil’s own backyard. The most critical aspect is that the
potash will be sold domestically—for Brazilian farmers first— thus fulfilling the goals of
the National Fertilizer Plan.
Our recent site visit to the Autazes Potash Project made clear that the company is very
advanced in site preparation for the processing plant and the port terminal for the
Autazes project. The port and other infrastructure is one of the greatest advantages
compared with other mining projects in the region. The Autazes potash mine is located
near to the Madeira River which gives the company downriver access to Mato Grosso,
where the captive market of Brazilian soybean and corn producers hunger for a
domestic supply of fertilizers.
Find the full mine visit report to Brazil Potash Autazes Potash Project in the PDF file:
https://hallgartenco.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/GRO_MineTrip_May2026.pdf
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