By Joshua Mayfield
Fertilizer shipments from the Strait of Hormuz
Dry bulk shipments through the Strait of Hormuz trapped over 90 per cent of dry bulkers in transit at the beginning of the war in Iran. This includes global seaborne fertilizer shipments, of which 16 to 18 per cent of the world’s fertilizer shipments come from the Persian Gulf region. The commodities at play during this war have strong links to nitrogen fertilizers and ammonia. This comes from the Gulf region’s production of LNG, sulphur, and urea.
The issues pertaining to dry bulk shipping are just as important to food as it is to fertilizers. The Middle East region imports a substantial amount of the world’s grains and other agricultural commodities. The Persian Gulf region’s imports of grains and oilseeds were completely stopped because of the attacks by the U.S., Israel, and Iran since February 28.
Saudi Arabia is also a key supplier of ammonia and phosphate fertilizers, so phosphate prices will likely stay higher for the rest of the year, even if tensions in the Middle East subside. While most of the attention is given to Qatar and UAE, since both countries have important LNG facilities for the fertilizer industry, gas curtailment issues related to Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Kuwait exacerbate the problem for nitrogen fertilizers. At the initial point of the attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, the Profercy World Nitrogen Index indicated that nitrogen fertilizer prices rose by 29.56 points from February 26 to March 9, 2026. The Egyptian prices were the highest in the beginning, with a premium of approximately USD $170 per ton priced into Egyptian Granular Urea free-on-board (fob) spot prices. Urea prices continued to rise for global markets, eventually hitting USD $684 per ton in the U.S. fertilizer market on March 20.
The Persian Gulf’s role in the global fertilizer market
Iran supplies the global market with the world’s fourth largest source of urea fertilizers needed to produce food. For example, data compiled by fertilizer trading platform Aquifert reveals that Iran is a significant fertilizer trading partner with Turkey, having supplied approximately 344,000 metric tons of urea fertilizers in January 2026. Due to Turkey’s reliance on urea imports, the government eliminated customs duties on urea fertilizer imports. It also was reported by the Turkish Statistical Institute that Turkey imported 2.5 million tons of urea for the full year of 2025. Those figures are reinforced by the Gulf region’s influence on fertilizer exports, which were provided by the International Fertilizer Association (IFA): 3.7 million tons of ammonia exports by origin in 2024;18.5 million tons of urea exports by origin in 2024; and 5.3 million tons of MAP and DAP exports by origin in 2024.
All the data points about food and fertilizers shouldn’t be overlooked during a time of extreme oil and gas price volatility. Higher gas prices certainly hit fertilizer producer margins, but so do high oil prices. While some countries have their own oil reserves, others have their own strategic stockpiles, but no country in the world can stockpile enough food in time for this war to end. China still has fertilizer export restrictions firmly in place. Other countries have sanctioned Russia, which is the world’s largest producer of wheat. As for potash, the Strait of Hormuz disruptions haven’t influenced supply and demand, but there’s also volatility in global wheat prices. Higher wheat prices will generally lead to higher potash prices. This will be a key factor to watch during the ongoing war in Iran.
Meanwhile, Brazil and India are immediately faced with all the worst-case scenarios revolving around this war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Brazil exports grains to Gulf countries, and India relies on fertilizer imports from Iran, but also from the other Gulf countries. China will rush into the arms of Moscow in hopes to secure and stockpile more wheat, grains, and potash, even paying premiums, if necessary. Russia could seize the advantage during this Strait of Hormuz crisis by supplying food and fertilizers at a premium to the global market, and this will be another key point in the potash price movements.
The geopolitical risk for fertilizer markets
Fertilizers are having a moment again due to the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement between Russia and Ukraine to allow shipping of food and fertilizers from the Black Sea is also still in focus. Both Russia and Ukraine have been trading in the global market, irrespective of the fact that commercial vessels are still at risk of coming under attack at the Odessa port.
Under the backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea tensions, China still has fertilizer export restrictions firmly in place. China’s fertilizer restrictions do not affect potash prices, but the cumulative effect of all three events, including China’s own program to stockpile the country’s strategic potash reserves, have made potash prices more vulnerable to geopolitical trends.
The disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz to global fertilizer supplies, especially nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, reveal that the global market trend has entered a new era: fertilizers are no longer the subject of traditional agricultural elements, such as agronomy, weather, and planting, but are strategic commodities shaped by government policies, maritime trade routes, and stockpiling behaviour as a result of critical minerals. Although there are several forces driving global fertilizer supply and demand, the geopolitical risk factors during this war in Iran must be considered at the same time.
President Trump is to meet with his counterparts in Beijing this year, and who knows what will transpire from that meeting. The geopolitical risk is a disaster for global food security, unless there’s some major changes in the geopolitical risk spectrum that are helpful to food and fertilizers in the near term. A peace deal between Russia and Ukraine would have a positive effect on food and fertilizer prices.
